This is an interesting barometer, which confirms our convictions and has the merit of providing reference figures.

Sofres analysis:

A continued decline in confidence in the future

Confidence in the future has never been so low. About two-thirds of French people, 20 or 30 years ago, had confidence in the future. Today, only a little more than a third of them are.

 

This fear is accompanied by a a barrage of pessimistic considerations about the future of humanityThis is against a backdrop of unprecedented mistrust of globalisation in the Western world: 85% of the French think that the world is in a bad way, and 49% say that the situation will get even worse. Only a quarter of French people (27%) have confidence in the future of future generations, and less than a fifth (19%) in the ability of humans to preserve the planet.

This pessimism about the collective future certainly does not translate into massive personal despair: 3/4 of French people say they have confidence in themselves (77%), and 2/3 think they will be able to cope. However, self-confidence is much lower among the younger generations, which are strongly affected by the difficulties of the labour market: only 64% of 15-25 year-olds declare that they have self-confidence, compared with 86% of the over-60s, and the same proportion think they can get by. It is therefore 1/3 of young people today lack the most intimate and powerful source of confidence: self-confidence.

But beyond the future, the latest edition of the Observatoire de la Confiance de La Poste confirms the existence within French society of a generalized distrust, which is worsening over time, towards others, elites, major institutions, as well as economic and social regulation mechanisms.

This is indeed a cultural phenomenon, but not the only one: the extent of the changes over the last few decades also underlines the historical nature of the phenomenon, in a society that has been confronted with the development of mass unemployment for 40 years.

Difficulty in building trusting relationships with others outside the intimate circle

The closer a person is to us, the more trust we have in them. We can thus identify three circles of trust:

The circle of intimates In addition to the above-mentioned people, there are other people with whom we share the same values and interests, and with whom we exchange information on a daily basis, such as our spouse, family and friends. 99% of French people say they trust their spouse, 94% their family and 93% their friends.

The inner circle The proportion drops to 42% for internet users in the case of people we meet on social networks. It is interesting to note that trust in those close to us is strongly correlated with self-confidence: without this foundation of trust, it is not possible to open up to others.

And finally, the third circle seems much more threatening: that of the 'others' in generalIn the case of the latter, trust is replaced by mistrust. Thus, only 23% of the French say that they "can trust most people", compared to 77% who feel that they are "never careful enough when dealing with others". While this mistrust of the 'unknown' may seem logical, it should be noted that it is a 'French exception' In contrast to the Scandinavians, two thirds of whom say that most people they meet can be trusted, and the Americans, nearly one in two of whom trust people a priori.

Politics and city life

Political staff is undergoing a massive discredit, which has increased over the last 20 years: only 7% of French people say they have confidence in politicians, compared to 29% in 1982 and 27% in 1993.

This deterioration in the image of politicians, coupled with the increase in abstention and blank or invalid votes, are often cited as symptoms ofa deeper crisis of political representation in France.

The mayorsIn addition to the above, the local political actors remain popular figures (51%), even though they have lost almost 20 points since 1982.

In the same vein, only 5% of the French trust the political partiescompared to 22% 30 years ago. A historically high level of mistrust, undoubtedly fuelled by the succession crisis at the head of the UMP, concomitant with the last survey.

 

 

The State is currently trusted by 30% of the French, a lower level of trust than that of its main institutions, even though, as we know, the French expect a lot from it. Is it the effect of doubts about his capacity to act, in a context where the centres of power seem to have shifted to Europe and the economic sphere? Is it the effect of his difficulty in reforming himself?

Among the sovereign functions of the state, only the army continues to enjoy massive confidence (at 72%). Its role now seems to be doubly valued: on the one hand, by its protective function, which is appreciated in an anxiety-inducing context, and on the other hand, by its involvement in humanitarian actions.

The judgements are more circumspect, and have been declining over the last decade, concerning the police and justice 59% and 37% of the French have confidence in them. The crisis of confidence in the French justice system is not new: court congestion, the cost of proceedings, the opacity of the judicial system, debates on recidivism. At the beginning of the 1980s, less than one in two French people said they had confidence in the justice system. Confidence in the police remained at a good level until the 2000s (around ¾ of French people had confidence in them) and has only recently dropped.

The public services Only one in two French people have confidence in the social protection system (retirement, unemployment), with two-thirds of them having major fears. This is all the more worrying given that the social protection system is now seen by the French as the most decisive factor in helping them to "get by". Confidence in the health system is better, although it has been clearly eroded over the last ten years.

The school Finally, despite the criticism it has received, the majority of French people continue to have confidence in it, despite an erosion over the last period.

Among international institutionsIn terms of trust, the UN and the European Union have different fates. While the UN, the international "judge of peace", retains a fairly high level of trust, the same cannot be said for the European Union, which is in steady decline. Against the backdrop of the debt crisis, the multiplication of last chance summits and the questioning of the financial solidarity of European states, the EU now only enjoys the confidence of a third of the French.

 

 

The associative world Consumer associations and humanitarian associations continue to enjoy massive trust. This is particularly the case for consumer associations, which are credited with defending everyone's interests, and which are trusted by 81% of the French. This level of trust is 16 points higher than that of humanitarian associations, which, appealing to generosity, ask citizens to make an effort for a benefit that does not concern them directly and benefit from a slightly lesser feeling of proximity. Finally, it should be noted in this respect that French people involved in an association are more confident in political and social institutions (57% have confidence in public services vs. 47% for French people who do not belong to an association), in others (29% trust others vs. 16%), or in the future of future generations (33% vs. 23%).

 

 

The media world and information Trust in the media has remained stable (and low) since 2000: about 1/4 of French people say they trust them. Today, the traditional media and word of mouth from friends and family continue to generate much more trust than the Internet:

 

• Traditional media: 46%
• Word of mouth from relatives: 44 %
• Information on the Internet: blogs, forums, social networks, wikipedia, etc.: 29 %

 

 

 

The economic sphere

Confidence in banks has fallen dramatically in 30 years, from 63% of confidence in 1982 (when the big banks were nationalised) to 25% today. This continuous fall, which predates the current financial crisis, has nevertheless been amplified by it.

Business leaders of the French people today have confidence in them. A stall occurred in 2002, with the Vivendi affair and the first "scandals" on "bosses' salaries", but the current crisis does not seem to have had any impact.

And there is always a huge gap between the confidence generated by small businesseswho embody proximity, integrity, hard work, and large companiesThese are all symbols of the disorders of globalisation in the eyes of the French.

 

 

Science and progress: confidence remains high

Despite fears about the future, science and progress (in the minds of the French, progress means above all scientific progress) continue to generate massive confidence, despite a slight erosion.

 

 

THE FULL REPORT:

Click to access 2013.01.10-confiance.pdf